bookmaker strategy - create odds on your own
In this strategy we describe how you can make your own odds for sport events. As a second step you compare your own odds with the ones of the bookmaker. Now you place bets on the events, where the bookmakers odd is significantly higher than yours. Of course you need enough information about the sport itself, aswell as:
- the present situation of the club and condition of the players
- Statistics from the past
- injured players
- does the sports club show a continuous performance, or does it fluctuate
Out of this information you create possibilities, about the result of an event:
For example: 1 50 % X 30 % 2 20%
The odds for each outcome can be calculated easily. Just divide 1 by the estimated possibility:
1 = 50% , therefore Odd 1/0,5 = 2,0
X = 10%, therefore Odd 1/0,3 = 3,3
2= 20%, therefore Odd 1/0,2= 5,0
Now you compare those odds with the ones from the betting provider:
Lets say the odds for the same event are: 2,4 2,9 4,2
In this case you should bet on the result 1 with an odd of 2,4. You do so, because the bookmakers offers a too high odd, compared to your estimations. This will be your advantage.
We pursue the above example: again, your odds are: 2,0 : 3,3 : 5,0
This time, the bookie has the following odds: 1,85: 3,10 : 5,80
Now you should rather bet on the result 2, with an odd of 5,80. Always bet on the event with the highest margin to the real odd.
Background knowledge: Why do you make your estimations before comparing with the odds offered?
A real simple question. If you start checking the bookies odds first, they will influence you subconcious. You won't be able to set up the possibilities you really believe in after.
